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".......only in the case of essentially complete elimination of emissions can the atmospheric concentration of CO2 .. be stabilised at a constant level".
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007
Why can Only Zero CO2 emissions
stop global warming ?
This IPCC (Intergovernmenal Panel on Climate Change) graph
shows the science that results in Only Zero CO2 emissions being able
to stop atmospheric CO2 rising and the planet warming.
The only way the planet can remove extra carbon
emissions is by the ultra slow carbon cycle that operates over thousands to millions of years sinking carbon into the lithosphere
(as rock)
This is as fossil carbon (land sink process) and by limestone and dolomite rock (ocean sink process)
.
As a result 20% of all CO2 emissions remain up in the atmosphere for 1000 years. That's ONE THOUSAND YEARS
It's level in the atmosphere (given as 100%) declines over 20 years mainly
due to CO2 dissolving in the ocean water.
But
33% of it is still up in the atmosphere 100 years after emission.
Twenty per cent of all CO2 emitted lasts up in the atmsophere
radiating
heat to the surface for at least 1000 years.
As a result -
So long as CO2 is emitted, CO2 in the atmosphere
will accumulate/build up.
It will also build up exponentially/ at an accelerating rate.
So long as any CO2 is added
to the atmosphere the level in the atmosphere
will not stabilize/ level out.
Only if no more CO2 is added/emitted will
atmospheric CO2 stabilize
and start to decline.
When it does the atmospheric CO2 will only decline very slowly.
In addition
in time the temporary carbon sinks will get too full and not take up CO2 emissions as effficently.
Our fossil fuel economy emits CO2 into the atmosphere constantly at an ultra rapid rate without past precedent in the
history of life on Earth.
The planet can only remove CO2 from the atmosphere 'permanently' at an ultra slow rate.
So
CO2 emissions constantly accumulate (build up) in the atmosphere - at an accelerating rate.
The Planet's Carbon Cycle and Carbon Sinks
The carbon cycle sustains life on Earth.
It is the reason why Only Zero
CO2 emissions can stop atmospheric levels rising and the planet heating.
FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS
Because of the very long life time of CO2 in the atmosphere
so long as any additional CO2 is emitted
to the atmosphere
the CO2 builds up/accumulates in the atmosphere.
The main source of CO2 emissions is the combustion of fossil
fuels for energy to power electricity and transportation.
Fossil fuel emissions are the source of dangerous air pollution and
of dangerous greenhouse gases.
In fact the four main GHGases are all emitted as the result of fossil fuel combustion.
FOSSIL FUEL AIR POLLUTION & GREENHOUSE GASES
carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, ozone (ground level)
The
long LAG EFFECT of response to cutting emissions
The result of a rapid global reduction in CO2 emissions
down to ZERO (IPCC 2001)
The above graph is from the IPCC Third Assessment 2001.
If CO2 emissions are suddenly slashed (as they must be) there is
a very long lag/ delay in any response of atmospheric CO2 and global temperature.
The Atmospheric CO2 level still
increases (at a slower rate) for many decades.
It doesn't stop increasing (stabilizes) till the CO2 emissions drop to zero.
Even so atmospheric CO2 concentration has barely fallen at all 1000 years after emissions are cut.
The temperature
responds even slower.
The rate of warming slows down but there is still more (slower warming) for over a thousand years
after CO2 emissions were cut
Only the planet's ultra long carbon cycle
can really 'sink' carbon
Atmospheric CO2 level.
Only Zero CO2 emissions.
Only stopping all fossil fuel emissions can stop global warming
Only a complete conversion of the world's energy to conservation and renewables can stop global warming
This IPCC graph shows what happens to a single instantaneous pulse of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere (100%).
Bath tub Atmosphere Analogy
The bathtub is the atmosphere. The water is CO2 in the atmosphere.
The tub is half full in
this case.
A tiny amount of water is being added from a dripping tap- our GHGas emissions compared to all the CO2 in the atmosphere
(3%).
This is addition of water perfectly balanced by a tiny leak in the tub.
This represents the ultra long carbon
cycle and sink.
Now we turn the tap on just a bit to add another drop of water dripping into the bathtub.
The tub
has to overflow- it's just a matter of time.
Now there is additional water in the tub from where we started - to stop the tub
overflowing we must turn off the tap.
This is the only real carbon 'sink'
The planet's carbon sinks have taken up more than half of the fossil fuel CO2 emissions.
The
largest sink by far is the ocean sink, that depends on plankton
Because of the Planet's Carbon Cycle
The ultra long duration of CO2 in the atmosphere
As emissions are reduced their rate of increase slows to a peak and then falls - only then are emissions being reduced
-
Temperatures continue rising, only levelling off when emissions aproach zero.
Warming still continues after emissions have
stabilized (leveled off).
If we did drastically cut GHGas emissions starting today there is no knowing if it is still in time
to stop catastrophic levels of global warming- lasting over 1000 years.
This would not be known for decades.
If
we persist in not even aiming for Zero CO2 emissions catastrophic global heating is inevitable.
But what we usually think of as the carbon sink is only a temporary sink within the land based short term carbon
cycle.
Soils grasses and trees will re-emit the carbon that they absorb from the air.
Only the Ultra long carbon
cycles can eventually and permanently sink carbon.